Weekly Digest - INVESTEC
Please find attached two updates from our Research Team:
- Weekly Digest – with a focus on the oil price fall (John Wyn-Evans – Head of Investment Strategy)
- Coronavirus Update – setting out our research message (John Haynes – Head of Research)
Total global cases rose by 1.5% over the last 24 hours to just under 3 million. The growth rate is well below the 3.0% average growth rate of the last five days, which has been on a declining trend. Although this is encouraging, post-weekend numbers are often slightly unreliable. In the UK and the US, growth in confirmed cases has slowed and France, Germany and Italy are all seeing case growth at their lowest levels, at around 1%-2%.
The focus is turning now to lockdown release schedules and strategies. In the US, Vice President Pence said he believed the US would be largely past the epidemic in June. In the UK, Boris Johnson is expected to focus on plans for easing the lockdowns as he returns to work this week. Italy indicated the lockdown will be eased from 4 May, though schools will not reopen until September. The French Prime Minister will present the governments exit strategy on Tuesday and in Spain it was announced that adults will be allowed to leave their homes for walks and exercise from 2nd May if the number of infections continues to move in a positive direction.
More cautionary news came from the World Health Organisation, which warned on Friday against the use of an “immunity passport” for those with antibodies, saying that there was no evidence that those who recovered were protected from a second infection.
The Week Ahead
A focus this week is on the peak of corporate earnings season, with 173 companies from the S&P 500 due to report. Names of interest to use include Amazon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Novartis, Roper Technologies, HSBC, Hexagon, Visa, Estee Lauder and ‘Big Oil’.