Mulberry Chartered

Guidance. Reassurance. Inspiration.

  • 020 8744 8010
Mulberry Chartered
  • Home
  • About
    • Meet the team
  • Your Life Journey
    • First Rung on the Ladder
    • Moving up
    • In Your Prime
    • Changing Focus
    • Doing What You Want To Do
  • Our Expertise
    • Savings and Investments
    • Pensions and Retirement
    • Estate Planning
    • Taxation
    • Family Protection
    • Mortgages
    • QROPS and QNUPS
  • How we Work
    • Our Fees
    • Our Terms and Conditions
    • Case Studies
    • The Mulberry Mobile App
  • Your Investments
  • News
  • Contact Us

Search site

Weekly Digest – INVESTEC

 

 

Please find attached today’s Weekly Digest.

 

I set out below two of the data series mentioned in the article, to help give some context:

 

1)      Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index. A recent string of strong data points (retail sales, employment numbers, manufacturing surveys) has seen the Citi US economic surprise index reach the highest level on record:

 

 

2)      Global retail, transit and workplace activity, with the picture supplemented by never-before available real-time data from Big Data accumulators (e.g. Google and Apple) . We have been tracking attendance at retailers, transit and workplace through publicly available mobile tracking data.  As a result of stronger performance in America, suggesting an earlier trough than we had pencilled-in (the end of April, rather than the end of May) and a sharper initial bounce. The data is, however, far from stable or consistent across regions and the margin for error remains high:

 

 

Our central case economic scenario, whilst being aware of now evenly balanced upside/downside possibilities, remains summarised by the outlook set out below that has been our framework since COVID-19 became a global pandemic.  Recent data gives us increased conviction of this:

 

 

Investors are beginning to look past COVID and we believe it is right to do so. The outlook for corporate profits and dividends has ceased to deteriorate and investment markets are discounting a reasonable scenario. COVID risks have not been removed, but they are diminishing and are largely near term (and we are investing for the long term for you).  The magnitude of investment downside has been underwritten by “whatever it takes” global  fiscal and monetary policy harmonisation. When COVID is decisively put behind us, the consequences of COVID-control policy  will be confronted. At that time, the removal of support and the de-synchronisation of global fiscal & monetary policy may cause a “Bernanke moment” of vertigo in financial markets. That, however, would almost certainly be a consequence of a positive (COVID) outcome and so should not be feared today. Altogether, we believe a balanced approach is appropriate.

BlogCategories

  • Around The World
  • e-magazine
  • Financial News
  • General News
  • Our Guides
  • The Markets Today
  • Uncategorised
  • Weekly Digest

BlogTags

BlogArchive

  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017

Get sound financial advice to suit your lifestyle.

Contact us today
Quick Links
  • Home
  • About
  • News
  • The Mulberry Mobile App
  • Your Investments
  • Our Fees
  • Our Terms and Conditions
  • Contact Us
Our Expertise
  • Savings and Investments
  • Pensions and Retirement
  • Estate Planning
  • Taxation
  • Family Protection
  • Mortgages
  • QROPS and QNUPS
Your Journey
  • First Rung on the Ladder
  • Moving up
  • In Your Prime
  • Changing Focus
  • Doing What You Want To Do

66 Hampton Road
Twickenham
TW2 5QB

020 8744 8010

enquire@mulberrychartered.com

Apple logo Google Play

Mulberry Chartered supports

Home start logo

Mulberry Chartered Financial Planners is a trading name of Mulberry Independent Financial Advisers Limited | Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority | Registered in England and Wales No. 5973527.Registered office: 66 Hampton Rd, Twickenham, Middlesex, TW2 5QB | T: 020 8744 8010 F: 020 8744 8020 E: enquire@mulberrychartered.com
Past performance is no guide to future performance. The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
THINK CAREFULLY BEFORE SECURING OTHER DEBTS AGAINST YOUR HOME.
YOUR HOME MAY BE REPOSSESSED IF YOU DO NOT KEEP UP REPAYMENTS ON A MORTGAGE OR ANY OTHER DEBTS SECURED ON IT.
The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate all of the products and services mentioned on this website.